Tactical voting


Our tactical voting recommendation in Eastleigh:
Vote Lib Dem

Why vote Lib Dem in Eastleigh?

Eastleigh has a long history of contests between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, who held the seat in 1994-2015. The Lib Dems have remained a strong local campaigning party and came second in 2019. Eastleigh is not a Labour target seat but it is, on the basis of the votes cast last time, the Lib Dems’ 22nd target seat from the Conservatives. Polling consistently indicates that there is an anti-Conservative majority in the seat, although the leading party and the distribution of the anti-Tory vote have varied. The latest polling shows a narrow Conservative lead over the Liberal Democrats. While polls indicate an upsurge of support for Labour to win the general election, we think much of this will end up rallying behind the local Lib Dems as the most effective way of defeating the Conservatives.

Tactical voting decision based on

Current MP
Local factors

Which parties look like they are targeting Eastleigh?

It looks like Eastleigh is a Liberal Democrats target seat.

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About our data

Polling: Voting Intention for Eastleigh

MRP polling by Survation:

Selector of different research dates
30 Mar
04 Jun
15 Jun
Conservative 34.50%
Labour 30.40%
Liberal Democrats 23.93%
Reform 7.22%
Green 2.74%
Other 1.10%
Updated: 15 June 20:20

Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat.

How many people intend to vote tactically in Eastleigh?


What's happened in Eastleigh

Energy Bills


Percentage of constituents who are worried about not being able to pay their energy bills in the next year
Source: Survation MRP for 38 Degrees (February 2023)

Food Banks (Local)


visits (April 2017 - March 2018)


visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Food Banks (Great Britain)


visits (April 2009 - March 2010)


visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)


1 in 25

robberies, burglaries, and other thefts solved in your constabulary (June 2019 - June 2022)
Source: Home Office (2019 - 2022)

Ambulance Wait Times

34m 5s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2018)

1h 10m 48s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2023)
Source: NHS England (November 2018 - 2023)



people are estimated to be homeless in your region
Source: Shelter (December 2023)

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